HayWired, an imaginary earthquake coming in 2018

Earthquakes are always a surprise, but we can be ready for them. Or, more ready. We can practice on a household basis, whether it’s a simple “Drop, Cover, Hold On” drill or a series of family meetings to go over scenarios — what if Mom’s stuck at work? What if we’re all out of town? What if we’re separated? What if our home is red-tagged?

It can be complicated. And think of how a whole city or region might practice for a major earthquake. The first requirement is a realistic picture of what would happen — a detailed, scientifically based earthquake scenario. When geologist Dale Cox first started talking to disaster responders about earthquakes, what they wanted to know most was “What exactly will the Big One be like?” He realized that his colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey could supply realistic answers based on their research and “get the science used.”

Last week Cox told an audience at SPUR about a new scenario in the works for the Hayward fault, named HayWired. We’ll hear a lot about it on the Bay area’s unofficial Earthquake Day, April 18th, next year.

For scenario work, every region needs its own custom earthquake. Ten years ago, the first ShakeOut exercise in Southern California used a scenario quake measuring magnitude 7.8 that ruptured the San Andreas fault from the Salton Sea all the way to Lancaster.

For the Hayward fault — what Cox called “the most urbanized fault in the United States” — planners of the Hayward Fault Initiative have used a repeat of the magnitude 6.8 earthquake in 1868. They’ve also used a 7.0 quake that, unlike the 1868 event, would rupture the fault’s entire length. The new-and-improved HayWired scenario takes everything to a new level of detail and engagement.

Alameda County Courthouse before and after the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake. San Leandro Public Library (before) and Bancroft Library (after).

The HayWired scenario starts with a scientific description of the hazards connected to a hypothetical magnitude 7.05 earthquake that occurs on Wednesday, April 18, 2018 at 4:18 in the afternoon. It goes into far more detail than previous efforts, covering ground motions, landslides, liquefaction, fires, disruptions to communications and the digital economy (hence the “Wired” part of the name), and aftershocks and afterslip.

Aftershocks in the first two years after the HayWired earthquake. The largest aftershock, of magnitude 6.2, is a pretty major quake in itself. USGS image.

That description has been published as the first of three volumes. Other specialists are preparing two more volumes based on it, one on environmental and engineering impacts and the other on social and economic impacts. Those will come out in the next few months.

The HayWired earthquake originates in Oakland, 8 kilometers beneath the intersection of Skyline Boulevard and Joaquin Miller Road. For that and many other reasons, I’ll be following this project closely for you.

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